Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
