A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
