Supporters of Newcastle United are more and more seeing the team's squad as an unreliable companion. On their day, they can be the undisputed life of the party, unleashing high-octane performances. But, at other times, once-dependable individuals like Sandro Tonali and his teammates simply do not show up.
Compounding this issue is a second-half game management laced with a pronounced element of panic. Before their holiday fixture to Old Trafford, the statistics paint a sobering tale: they have let slip thirteen vital Premier League points from leading positions this campaign and are without a shutout in 10 straight outings in every tournament. Earning victory at Old Trafford would constitute only their second-ever domestic success on the travel this season.
Conversely, a loss has only come on one occasion in their most recent 6 league encounters, and despite sitting in a seemingly lowly eleventh place, they are a only 6 points away from the coveted top four. Factor in an upcoming two-legged League Cup last-four clash against the reigning champions and a reasonable opportunity of advancing to the Champions League knockout phase, and it becomes easier to see the gaffer's cautious positivity.
“We don't just have issues,” said the team's boss. “We have positives too. I am very much optimistic at present. I know everybody else may hold a different view, but my belief is we're making progress.”
The challenge remains: can this squad match – or even exceed – the heights of the previous campaign's Wembley triumph and European-qualifying finish? Juggling a packed calendar makes this difficult.
The resulting tiredness might be the reason behind the inability to uphold a brilliant first-half performance versus their London rivals, eventually squandering a two-goal advantage to tie the game. Similarly, it is possibly the explanation for a poor performance in a painful defeat to arch-rivals the Black Cats, where the team seemed sluggish just a short time after a tough European excursion.
Although on-field instruction is clearly the manager's forte, the constant schedule of twice-weekly matches has drastically reduced crucial training time. This slows the squad's tactical adjustment to playing with new striker their number nine leading the line, instead of the departed their former star. Although hugely skilled, the German forward does not possess the same electric breakaway pace or ferocious defensive work rate.
Indeed, the side's once-formidable pressing game has occasionally broken down. Injuries to vital cog the Brazilian midfielder have been a factor, while high-profile arrivals the Swedish winger and the English midfielder have struggled settling after their substantial moves.
While a change to a three-man defense could arguably assist the team, a severe defensive injury list renders that unlikely. First-choice full-backs will be missing for the upcoming crucial matches, challenging the squad's depth.
At their high-tempo peak, they appear virtually unstoppable. The problem is sustaining that level for the full 90 minutes. The typical alternative approach of sitting back into a deep-lying counter-attacking shape has sometimes proven self-destructive.
“The Chelsea game became disorganized at two-all,” conceded the manager. “But we were going for the victory. We always try to secure the three points.”
What seems necessary is a pragmatic solution – with superior possession control, a engine room adept of controlling the pace, and a realistic willingness to occasionally settle for a draw. However, a determination to compete on every competitions is pushing thin squad numbers to their limit.
It may seem heretical to some, but a different strategy in the cup competitions in the initial stages could have alleviated the present schedule pile-up. With critical European & league games on the agenda, the need to strategically choose focus areas is growing increasingly clear.
Eddie Howe acknowledged the scale of the task remaining. “Being at this club, the demands are enormous. Each game is crucial. There is progress to be made in the Premier League. We are in the League Cup semi-finals, we aim to progress in the Champions League and do well in the FA Cup.
“We're moving in the right direction, but we have a great deal of work to do to become the regularly successful team we aspire to be. Our capacity to put winning runs has deserted us this season.
“The challenge is to hit those levels we know we're capable of. The internal belief is that the self-belief we can do that is growing. Yet now we have to show it. It's not all bad right now, but the upcoming fixtures will determine a great deal.”